RICS/Ci Portuguese Housing Market Survey

• Activity in the lettings market benefits from the continued fallout in the sales market
• Rents and rental expectations are falling
• Lettings transactions to rise further

The November RICS/Ci Portuguese Housing Market Survey (PHMS) covers the sales and lettings sectors. Starting with the sales market, respondents reported a continued fall in demand, supply, and prices. Meanwhile sales activity declined at the fastest pace since the survey began (September 2010). The National Price balance fell from -64 to -70, while the National Confidence index remained stable at -60, just above the lowest level on record.

House price declines continue to be driven by falling demand; rising supply is not presently an issue, with new vendor instructions falling consistently this year.

Until September, new home prices had been falling less sharply than prices for existing homes. However, the November survey provides additional evidence that developers are now becoming less resilient to market conditions. Indeed, new home prices are now falling more rapidly than existing homes.

The lettings market continues to benefit from the fallout in the sales market; tenant demand and new landlord instructions continued to increase further, albeit at a slower pace than last month, as did letting transaction expectations. Rents are falling quite sharply and rent expectations turned increasingly negative. This could reflect an excess of rental stock on the market but there is also anecdotal evidence of a mismatch between the type stock offered and that in demand.

The regional data tends to be more volatile than the national data, but during November, respondents in the Algarve saw the sharpest house price falls while those in Lisbon saw the sharpest falls in rents.

CI Spokesman, Ricardo Guimaraes commented: “According to the Memo signed with the Troika, December is the deadline for the Portuguese Government to change the lease law, which should improve the market confidence, especially regarding the default risk from tenants. This is moving agents’ expectations. At the same time, the most commented topic remains the financial wrangling between potential buyers and banks, as well as the amount of houses directly sold by financial institutions, which is having a negative effect on prices.”

RICS Senior Economist, Josh Miller added: “Although sales volumes in the housing market continue to fall, volumes in the lettings market are rising as households who cannot access mortgage finance are opting for rented accommodation instead. Given the deteriorating macro economic backdrop - unemployment now stands at 12.9% while economic sentiment has collapsed - and the tightening in credit conditions already underway, the lettings market is likely to continue experiencing high volumes of activity for the time being.”