Tuesday 23 August 2011

RICS Global Distressed Property Monitor Q2 2011

While investor demand increases dramatically, the level of distressed properties* coming to market is set to continue to rise globally, says RICS.

Released today, the latest RICS Global Distressed Property Monitor reveals that over half of the countries surveyed anticipate a rise in forced selling of commercial buildings for the coming quarter. Not surprisingly, the Republic of Ireland, Spain and Italy expect the highest number of foreclosures, while Brazil, Malaysia and Russia expect the lowest.

Property professionals in Russia foresee a continued decline in the level of distressed property, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected. This, together with a positive swing in investor demand, will likely stabilise distressed property prices in the country over the course of the coming quarter. Germany remains a strong performer as well, with supply of distressed properties expected to rise at a slower pace from July to September compared to the second quarter.

Interestingly, the survey also highlights a surge in worldwide demand for distressed properties. Over 80% of the countries surveyed reported increased levels of interest from specialist funds from April to June. Investor demand rose most dramatically in Hungary, while RICS members also reported noticeable shifts in Italy and Poland, where demand is now back to positive. Asian commercial property markets also echo this global trend, as demand outstrips expected supply in Japan, China, Singapore and Hong Kong.

However, while demand for distressed properties is broadly increasing, expected supply still exceeds demand in 11 of the 25 countries covered by the survey.

Commenting on the survey, Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist said:
“The dramatic rise in investor appetite for distressed assets may be reflecting a measure of confidence in the outlook for the real estate sector despite the volatile economic context. However, it needs to be borne in mind that the results still show generally negative numbers, especially for those markets where the economic pain is most intense. This is particularly true in the Republic of Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy, where debt concerns continue to grow.”